The Data Behind Business and Community Decisions May Be Changing: What to Know Before October 13

Most business owners probably do not think about the U.S. Census very often.

But they may rely on it more than they realize.

Population and demographic data influence market research, workforce planning, economic development, public infrastructure, grant funding, community needs assessments, site selection, and decisions about where organizations invest time and resources.

That is why a proposed change to the 2030 Census is worth understanding now.

On September 10, 2026, the U.S. Department of Commerce and Census Bureau published a proposed rule that would change how “usual residence” is defined for the decennial Census, who is included in the population used for congressional apportionment, and which demographic questions may appear on the decennial Census questionnaire.

The proposal is not final, and the public comment period remains open through October 13, 2026.

Read the official proposed rule in the Federal Register

This is not about taking a political position on the proposal.

It is about understanding what may change, where the data many organizations rely on comes from, and whether the change could affect the decisions we make with it.

A principle that goes back to the first Census

One reason this proposal is notable is its history.

The concept of “usual residence” dates to the first federal Census in 1790. The original Census Act instructed enumerators to associate people with their “usual place of abode,” including people who happened to be temporarily away when the count occurred.

The Census Bureau says that concept has guided every subsequent Census.

Learn more about the Census Bureau's historical Census guidance

That does not mean Census rules have been unchanged for more than 200 years.

They have evolved significantly as the country and its laws have changed. The Census has developed detailed rules over time for college students, military personnel, people living in group settings, people without permanent housing, people with more than one residence, and many other circumstances.

But the central modern concept has generally remained straightforward:

A person is counted where that person lives and sleeps most of the time.

The Census Bureau specifically notes that this “usual residence” may not be the same as a person's legal residence or voting residence.

Review the Census Bureau's current usual-residence guidance

Under the 2020 rules, foreign citizens living in the United States were generally counted at the U.S. residence where they lived and slept most of the time. Foreign citizens who were only visiting the United States, such as for vacation or a business trip, were not counted.

What could change?

The proposed rule would introduce a different definition.

Under the proposal, a person's “usual residence” would be the residence where the person has lawfully spent the greatest number of days during a Census enumeration period running from January 3 through April 1.

For foreign citizens, the proposal would distinguish between those who are U.S. citizens or lawful permanent residents and other foreign citizens. Under the proposed regulatory language, the latter group would not be counted for congressional apportionment.

The proposal separately addresses demographic questions.

It would prohibit questions about race, ethnicity, or sexual orientation from appearing on the short-form decennial Census questionnaire or other questionnaires used for the population enumeration. The proposal would still allow demographic data to be collected through the American Community Survey, other Census Bureau surveys, administrative records, and other authorized sources.

These are proposed changes, and the details could change before any final rule is issued.

Review the full proposed language

Why should a business owner care?

A small business may never download a Census data file directly.

That does not mean Census information is absent from business decisions.

Population and demographic data can work their way into economic-development reports, market analyses, chamber reports, site-selection studies, workforce research, growth projections, and other resources businesses use to understand their communities.

Consider some common questions:

How quickly is our market growing?

How many people live within our service area?

Where might we open another location?

Is the available workforce keeping pace with business growth?

What types of customers live in this community?

Where is demand likely to grow next?

Small and midsize businesses often depend heavily on publicly available information.

That makes it important to understand when the methodology behind that information changes.

A population number can be accurate according to its stated methodology while representing something different than the number business leaders thought they were using.

Nonprofits face an even more direct connection

For nonprofits, population information frequently becomes part of the case for why a program exists.

Organizations may use Census and demographic data in community needs assessments, grant applications, program planning, fundraising, service-area decisions, strategic plans, and evaluations of whether community needs are growing.

Yet demand for services exists independently of how a population is statistically classified.

Families still seek food assistance.

People still need behavioral health services.

Children still participate in youth programs.

Individuals still need housing, disability services, employment support, healthcare, and other community resources.

If an organization's actual service population and a particular population measure begin representing different groups of people, nonprofit leaders may need to understand that difference when interpreting their data.

The National Council of Nonprofits has published its own analysis of the proposal and resources for nonprofit organizations. NCN is advocating against the proposed changes, so its materials represent that organization's position rather than neutral government guidance.

Review the National Council of Nonprofits' Census resources

Public services have another challenge

Public infrastructure must respond to people who are physically present in a community.

Roads, water systems, emergency services, libraries, parks, public transportation, hospitals, and sanitation systems all experience demand based on real-world use.

At the same time, Census-derived information appears throughout government planning and in various federal funding formulas.

That does not mean that a change in one Census population figure automatically creates an equivalent change in government funding.

The more useful question for public leaders is:

Which population measure are we using, and what exactly does it represent?

A community may have Census population estimates, American Community Survey estimates, school enrollment information, utility records, healthcare utilization data, local administrative records, and other measures of population and service demand.

Those numbers may not always align perfectly.

Understanding why is part of good planning.

Workforce planning may be an overlooked issue

Population data is also part of the environment businesses use to understand labor markets.

Employers and economic-development organizations regularly try to determine whether labor challenges are caused by a shortage of available workers, a skills mismatch, wage competition, transportation limitations, demographic change, migration, or some combination of those factors.

If different data products use different definitions of who is included, leaders may need to pay closer attention to which source answers the particular question they are asking.

Someone can live in a community, work for a local employer, rent an apartment, purchase goods and services, and use local infrastructure regardless of whether that individual appears in every federal population measure.

For workforce planning, that difference can matter.

The broader business lesson: know what is behind the number

The Census proposal highlights a larger issue that applies well beyond Census data.

Organizations make major decisions using data they did not collect themselves.

We forecast demand.

We compare markets.

We plan staffing.

We evaluate community needs.

We decide where to invest.

Yet it is easy to focus on the number without stopping to ask what went into producing it.

When a methodology changes, an apparent change in the data may reflect a real change in the community, a change in how the community is being measured, or both.

Business leaders do not need to become statisticians.

But they do need to know enough to ask:

What does this number actually represent?

There is still time to participate

Because this is a proposed rule, individuals and organizations still have an opportunity to provide information before a final decision is made.

The public comment period closes October 13, 2026.

The proposal is identified as Docket USBC-2026-0628.

Option 1: Submit your own public comment

The Federal Register page for the proposed rule includes the official comment instructions.

Read the proposal and access the federal comment process

You can also visit Regulations.gov and search for:

USBC-2026-0628

A useful organizational comment might explain:

• what your organization does;

• which Census or demographic information you rely on;

• how you use that information;

• what operational effect you believe a proposed change could have;

• what implementation questions should be considered; and

• what examples, data, or alternatives may help inform the agency's decision.

A comment does not have to simply say “support” or “oppose.”

Organizations can support portions of a proposal, question others, raise implementation concerns, provide data, or explain real-world consequences the agency should consider.

Option 2: Submit comments by mail

The proposed rule also provides a mailing option:

4600 Silver Hill Road
Designation: ADDEMO/FRN
Washington, DC 20746

Check the official Federal Register notice before mailing to confirm current instructions.

Option 3: Participate through an organization

Industry associations, nonprofit networks, professional organizations, chambers, and other groups may submit their own comments or organize collective responses.

If you participate through another organization, review its position and make sure it reflects the perspective you want represented.

For nonprofits specifically, the National Council of Nonprofits has created a comment guide and is also organizing a national sign-on letter for organizations that agree with its position.

NCN comment resources and analysis

NCN organizational sign-on letter

A note before submitting

Public comments generally become part of the public record.

Organizations should avoid including confidential business information, protected personal information, client-identifying information, or anything else they would not want publicly accessible.

Review the official instructions before submitting.

2030 may sound far away. Business and community planning is not.

No business leader, nonprofit leader, or public-service professional needs to decide what to think about this proposal based on a headline.

Read what is being proposed.

Consider whether your organization relies on the data that could be affected.

Ask whether changes in methodology could alter how you interpret your market, workforce, service population, or community.

And if your organization has relevant experience or information, decide whether that perspective should be part of the public record before the comment period closes.

Public comments are due October 13, 2026.

Good decisions require good data.

Good data requires understanding what is behind the number.

About Axisara Group

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